Process Over Imposition: How, Why the Conduct of APC’s Cross River Primaries Will Shape 2027

By Peter Agi

The APC National Assembly primaries in Cross River have been held, and the list of candidates now shapes the party’s chances in 2027. The most consequential outcome is in Cross River Central, where Oden Ibiang O Ewa emerged as the party’s senatorial candidate. In Cross River South, Daniel Effiong Asuquo was listed as the candidate. These names represent the party’s standard bearers, but how they emerged determines whether they enter the general election with authority or with a legitimacy deficit that opponents and aggrieved party members can exploit.

Cross River Central deserves close attention because it illustrates the tension between managed consensus and contested process. The senatorial seat covers six local government areas with distinct political blocs, and any candidate who wins must carry support across those divisions. When primaries are conducted with verifiable delegates, materials, and results, the winner gains a mandate that is difficult to dispute. That mandate becomes a campaign asset. It allows the candidate to reference votes cast, wards covered, and structures engaged. It also gives aggrieved aspirants a clear basis to either concede or pursue redress within the party, rather than walking into the open with allegations that undermine the ticket.

What complicates this picture is how APC handled screening. Both Oden Ibiang O Ewa and Daniel Effiong Asuquo appeared on the party’s official list of 47 senatorial aspirants nationwide that were “not cleared” to participate in the primaries. The National Working Committee said the screening followed established procedures and guidelines, though it did not disclose specific reasons for the decisions. A revised list later reduced the total to 44 names, with both Cross River aspirants still included among those not cleared.

Reports then indicated that Oden Ewa was cleared to contest the Cross River Central primary. That sequence points to post-screening appeals or adjustments that are routine in APC’s process. But when aspirants move from disqualified to cleared without a public explanation, it creates confusion. Members are left to infer whether the decision was based on procedure, negotiation, or intervention from above. That ambiguity undermines the legitimacy of the outcome, even if the candidate is qualified and competitive.

The turnover in Cross River’s House of Representatives primaries underscores the stakes. Five sitting members lost their tickets, including Mike Etaba and Alex Egbona. That level of change indicates that members were willing to exercise choice. But turnover alone does not equal democratic selection. If new candidates emerge from unverifiable processes, the party trades one set of officeholders with weak grassroots standing for another set with the same weakness. The electorate notices. In a state where APC is consolidating after the 2023 realignment, that weakness can turn a winnable contest into a defensive one.

The stakes are higher for the senatorial race in Central. A senator represents a broader constituency, and the office carries influence over patronage, legislative bargaining, and party structure. A candidate who emerges from a credible primary enters the race with legitimacy that translates into turnout and volunteer effort. A candidate who emerges from imposition enters with a ceiling on mobilization, because a significant portion of the party structure remains passive or hostile. That ceiling matters in a general election where small margins decide outcomes.

APC’s state leadership has moved to project unity. The party has passed votes of confidence for President Tinubu and Governor Bassey Otu for 2027, and the state chairman has warned that any APC member who runs against Otu will be expelled. Those steps preserve short-term alignment at the top, but they do not resolve the resentment created when members feel shut out of candidate selection. A former presidential aide captured the mood by describing the current calm as “the peace of the graveyard—eerily quiet but deeply unsettled”. He warned that without reconciliation and transparent primaries, the grievances could convulse into turmoil during the general elections.

The contrast with the 2023 governorship primary is instructive. That exercise was held at the UJ Esuene Stadium, with the panel chairman announcing results and vote counts: Bassey Otu 811 votes, John Owan-Enoh 84, Chris Agara 63. The documentation gave the winner a mandate members could reference and gave the party a basis to close ranks. The recent National Assembly primaries lacked that clarity in several constituencies. Aspirants reported that materials did not arrive in several wards, yet results were announced. Others said no stakeholders’ meeting was held to agree on consensus, yet consensus was declared. When results are declared without materials arriving and without meetings to establish consensus, the process ceases to be a primary and becomes imposition by another name.

For APC in Cross River, the path forward requires separating the question of who won from the question of how they won. The names are now on the list. The party must now manage the consequences. That means prioritizing reconciliation in constituencies where the process was contested, documenting grievances, and ensuring that future primaries and substitutions follow rules that are verifiable before the vote. Materials must arrive, stakeholders must meet, and results must be announced based on returns. Where aspirants are disqualified, the reasons should be stated so members understand it is procedure, not politics. Where consensus is genuinely reached, it should be voluntary, signed by all aspirants, and recorded transparently so that no one can claim they were excluded after the fact.

Process is not convenient. It takes money, time, and the willingness to manage public disagreement. But it produces candidates who can stand on their own merits and members who are willing to defend the outcome at the polls. Imposition avoids the mess today and creates a larger one tomorrow, when the electorate weighs in. In Cross River Central and across the state, APC’s 2027 performance will depend less on the names announced and more on whether those names can claim a mandate that party members recognize as their own.

Peter Agi (FCA)
A Public Affairs Commentator
Writes from Ijegu-Ojor
Yala LGA.